Executive Summary

The UK market for bicycles has declined slowly since the start of the decade, but has levelled off at around 2 million units, exceeding the number of new cars registered each year. Recession has affected the numbers sold, but more especially has led consumers to trade down to cheaper models, resulting in little movement in the value of the market, which in 1994 stood at £290m.

The market includes every sort of bicycle, including racing and touring bikes, standard adult cycles, mountain bikes, hybrid bikes, BMX bikes, children's bikes, and small wheel bikes (shopper). Around two-thirds of all bikes sold are now mountain bikes, many imported from the Far East. Estimates of the market for accessories are also included.

While the recession affected volume sales to some extent, the market retains an underlying strength. Consumer concern with personal health and fitness, the environment and urban traffic congestion are all factors pushing people onto bicycles. Technical developments also help drive the market forward, with the use of new materials, and the addition of suspension and new gear shifts attracting attention. Ownership is at a high level -- around 20 million people own a bike -- but use is much less pronounced; only 6 million people are regular bicycle users.

The single biggest factor preventing more widespread use of bicycles is safety. Inexperienced cyclists are reluctant to dice with death and serious injury on roads carrying ever more traffic (the Department of Transport estimates vehicle traffic may increase by up to 124% by 2005). The recent award of lottery funds to `greenways' charity Sustrans, to help construct a national cycle network will create a more favourable cycling environment which will attract more users.

In the wake of recession, buyers will be less fixated on price and will upgrade to more expensive models. Volumes will grow with the advent of the national cycle network. There are increasing pressures from other areas to promote cycling in urban areas, as a consequence of traffic congestion and increased pollution, which should also result in a safer climate for cyclists. As a result, Key Note forecasts that the market will pick up from 1997 and reach 2.5 million units worth around £390m by the year 1999.

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